Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sea ice prediction systems and research products for Alaska

Monday, April 22, 2019 at 2:30 PM AKDT
David DeWitt and Wanqiu Wang, CPC

Dr Wang will present on subseasonal and seasonal sea ice prediction systems available from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

CPC experimental sea ice predictions

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 is one of the first operational coupled atmosphere-ocean models that provide sea ice predictions with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice component.  The predicted sea ice from CFS, however, contains large errors in seasonal cycle as well as interannual variations due to unrealistic model physics and use of erroneous sea ice initial conditions.  An experimental forecast system (CFSpp) was developed based on CFS at the NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with improved model physics and improved sea ice initial conditions from University of Washington Pan-arctic Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). CPC started providing seasonal sea ice prediction in 2015.  The CFSpp has been recently further upgraded to CFSm5 with a newer ocean component (MOM5) and an in-house CPC Sea ice Initialization System (CSIS).  In this talk, we present an overview of the development of the CPC experimental sea ice forecast system, prediction products, and an evaluation of the predictions.  The following aspects will be discussed: (1) Challenges in sea ice forecasts from NCEP operational CFS; (2) CPC experimental sea ice prediction system; (3) CPC sea ice initialization system; (4) Forecast performance assessment; and (5) Forecast products.  An assessment of the forecast for the record-low Bering Sea sea ice extent in 2018 spring and the sea ice advancement in Bering Sea in 2018-2019 winter will also be presented.

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